CAFTA的构建对成员国经济影响的计量研究*

邵兵家  李丽

(重庆大学经济与工商管理学院  重庆  400030)

摘 要：本文采用全球贸易分析（GTAP）模型，从贸易规模、贸易结构、生产格局及福利水平等方面的变化，就CAFTA的构建对其成员国产生的经济影响及影响程度进行了模拟研究。研究结果表明，由于CAFTA各成员国产业竞争力的差异以及在既有的贸易安排中地位的不同，各自所获得的损益出现不平衡。并且，中国对东盟的贸易逆差会持续扩大，相关产业将受到严峻冲击。

关键词：CAFTA;  GTAP模型;  经济影响

Econometric Analysis for the Economic Impact of CAFTA’S Construction on Its Member Nations

Shao Bingjia   Lili

(College of Economics and Business Administration, Chongqing University, Chongqing, 400030, China)

Abstract: Applying global trading analysis project (GTAP), the economic impact of CAFTA’s construction on its member nations has been simulated and analyzed, from aspects of trade scale, trade structure, production pattern and welfare level. The result indicates that, as a result of different industrial competitiveness and trade position, each member-nation’s gain or loss appears unbalanced. However, the trade deficit of China toward AFTA continues enlarging, and correlated industries of China suffer from great impulsion.

Keywords: CAFTA；Global Trading Analysis Project；Economic Effect

   本文发表于《经济科学》２００６年第６期，Ｐ９７－１０６。